How Biden’s visit could affect Israel-Palestine ties

For the first time in decades, an American president will this week visit the Middle East with no initiative for Israel-Palestine. In the past, it was almost what was expected of them. George H.W. Bush had Madrid, Bill Clinton had Oslo and Camp David, and George W. Bush had his road map, while Barack Obama left it largely to John Kerry to lead his initiative.

Donald Trump had his own peace plan but, as yet, there is no sign of even a rough outline of how Joe Biden might cajole Israeli and Palestinian leaders in this direction.

So how will Palestinians see this? Yes, Biden will have a bilateral meeting with President Mahmoud Abbas, but he comes with no serious proposal to address their rights or end the occupation and systemic oppression. The Palestinian leadership is realistic. They know that, for Biden, meeting Abbas for a couple of hours is a sideshow to the main tour. Their expectations are suitably low.

And remember Abbas is the chairman of the Palestine Liberation Organization, a body that, due to congressional pressure, the US government still designates a terrorist organization. It has done so ever since 1987, even though Abbas and his predecessor, Yasser Arafat, have been guests at the White House on numerous occasions.

Is it wise for Biden to have no strategy? No doubt many in his camp have argued that it is not worth the presidential effort. Biden has tried to focus on domestic issues and, until Ukraine, had limited his exposure internationally. His visit to the region has far more to do with the Saudi leg of the tour than the Israeli.

His more pressing discussions with Israeli leaders will no doubt focus on Iran and the wider impact of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. But Biden is also purportedly pushing for more countries to normalize relations with Israel — a process that might prove easier if the US was pushing a genuine peace process with the Palestinians.

However, the behind-the-scenes preparations have still been comprehensive and detailed. No president wants to get caught out and even minor details can derail a visit. It has involved 37 preliminary meetings so far. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken spoke to Abbas about two weeks ago. Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs Barbara Leaf has been in pole position executing the arrangements.

What can Biden offer? It is a mark of American weakness that he can do so little. The only thing thus far is to pressure the Israeli side not to do anything to embarrass the president until after his visit is over. This includes advancing major settlement and eviction plans. This is hardly impressive. He also pushed for the Israeli prime minister and his Palestinian counterpart to talk on the phone — the first time this has happened for five years.

Palestinians have seen time and time again how senior American visits trigger calm from Israel, followed by post-visit aggression. Biden himself was livid when, as vice president, then-Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced a major settlement move during his visit. This soured their relationship. What makes Palestinians furious is the lack of a similar response if Israel adopts a more diplomatic timetable. As one Palestinian official told me: “It is crazy. On a Monday, the US considers a settlement move wrong, but by Tuesday it is ‘please, go ahead.’”

Abbas wants to know if the more centrist Israeli PM Lapid is prepared to offer confidence-building measures

Chris Doyle

New Israeli Prime Minister Yair Lapid is unlikely to embarrass Biden in such a fashion, but settlement expansion continues and major projects to remove Palestinians in areas of Jerusalem and the southern West Bank are progressing. For the first time, Israel is close to crossing the red line set by every US president since Clinton of going forward with the doomsday E1 settlement that would carve up the West Bank and sever it from Jerusalem. A decision was scheduled for July 18, just after the president’s visit, but has now been delayed until September. It will be another minimal Palestinian expectation that Biden blocks any such move.

Abbas will also want Biden to reopen the PLO office in Washington, though this will not happen. Congress will be obstinate. And Abbas will seek additional US funding and pressure on Israel to hand over Palestinian customs revenues that it illegally holds. Palestinian officials claim this to be as much as $500 million. The repercussions of the Ukraine war have hit the Palestinian economy hard, so this matters more than ever. Already, for the last three months, the PA has only been able to pay 80 percent of its salaries.

Then there is the vexed issue of an independent investigation into the killing of journalist Shireen Abu Akleh. The Palestinians await answers on this.

The other action Biden can possibly take is being held up as he needlessly allowed Israel a veto. Trump closed the US Consulate in East Jerusalem in 2019. The Palestinians want it reopened, not least to show that Washington acknowledges their equity in the city and has a diplomatic presence specifically for Palestinian affairs. But even though Biden had pledged to do this, he has baulked and will not now go ahead without Israeli consent.

Israeli leaders like to deal with the Palestinians bilaterally. They prefer to make their own decisions on easing restrictions or returning funds owed to the Palestinians, not doing something because they have been forced to by a third party. This is a process of de-internationalizing the conflict, whereby Israel limits even the influence of its primary ally and security guarantor.

Hence, the Israeli leaders, not at the behest of the US, are considering allowing a limited rollout of 4G networks in the West Bank — a decision first made last November. This is for Palestinians, as their settler neighbors already have it. The aim is to boost the Palestinian economy in the West Bank, although Israel will only permit Gaza 2G.

Abbas wants to know if the more centrist Israeli PM Lapid is prepared to offer confidence-building measures. This may determine whether Abbas will carry out his threat to cut off security cooperation with Israel, with resolutions to that effect having already been passed in the Palestinian Central Council. Only with significant changes from the Israeli side can Abbas put off this move, which would remove one of the last vestiges of the Oslo process.

This leaves Abbas in a difficult situation. With no political horizon, no Israeli partner and domestic pressures rising, he may have to make a stand. It is not his preferred option, but the withdrawal of security cooperation with Israel is one of the few cards he has left. Doing nothing in the face of major Israeli moves and Palestinian economic hardship may just not be an option.

• Chris Doyle