World facing new nuclear disarmament fight

More than 75 years since the first nuclear bombs were used in war and the atomic age began, much of the world has no experience of the specter of nuclear Armageddon. The Cold War seems a distant reality — a piece of history for younger generations, when the major superpowers faced off with arsenals that had the power to wipe out humanity several times over. But has this comfort zone been shattered in recent years and even months?

The hope was that nuclear weapons prevented war. One hundred days into the Ukraine war, this thesis is under severe scrutiny. Russia did invade Ukraine. NATO states have armed Ukraine to thwart Russia’s advances. Elsewhere, Iran is on the threshold of nuclear capability and North Korea continues to saber-rattle with countless missile tests and another possible nuclear test in the offing. China is expanding its nuclear and missile arsenals. India and Pakistan nearly came to blows as nuclear weapons states at the beginning of this century and their relations are barely any better today. Are we all getting a little blase about the threat of nuclear war?

On Ukraine, Russia has implicitly threatened to deploy nuclear weapons. President Vladimir Putin stated at the outset: “No matter who tries to stand in our way or… create threats for our country and our people, they must know that Russia will respond immediately, and the consequences will be such as you have never seen in your entire history.”

NATO countries have debated the extent to which this is just a bluff, albeit a dangerous one to bet on. For Sweden and Finland, these threats, as well as the invasion of Ukraine, formed the critical backdrop to their decisions to seek NATO membership. This may be understandable, but it certainly ramps up the tensions with Russia.

After the demise of the Soviet Union, Ukraine in 1994 gave up what was then the world’s third-largest nuclear arsenal of 4,400 warheads and its intercontinental ballistic missiles, handing them to Russia on the basis of security assurances — not guarantees — from the US and the UK and a pledge of non-aggression from Moscow.

At its independence in 1990, Ukraine had determined that it would not be part of the nuclear weapons club and it joined the Non-Proliferation Treaty. For diplomatic and economic reasons at the time, it made sense for the fledgling state.

The 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine prompted challenges to Kyiv’s decision to abandon nuclear weapons. Many Ukrainians believe that, if they were still a nuclear weapons power, Russia would not even have taken Crimea in 2014.

Iran is famously on the verge of acquiring nuclear weapons capability. The International Atomic Energy Association last week determined that Tehran has acquired enough enriched uranium to manufacture a bomb. How much longer before this becomes a reality? The Iran nuclear talks are paralyzed and many doubt that any potential deal would be sufficient. This will also upend the security situation in the Middle East, with many states feeling threatened. Israel has not ruled out military action.

How many countries will be lured by the gravitational pull of a nuclear arsenal? It is not cheap and it carries considerable risks, but some states will view it as a strategic necessity. Countries like Germany are also becoming keener to maintain American nuclear weapons on their territory. States like the UK and France are more likely to upgrade their capabilities with public backing.

The global diplomatic scene shows that the major powers lack the trust and engagement required to move forward.

Chris Doyle

Is there a reverse gear to all this? The omens are not great for the disarmament community. North Korea, no less, has just assumed the presidency of the Conference on Disarmament, the top UN-associated body on disarmament. This is as irresponsible as allowing Syria to be appointed to the World Health Organization’s Executive Board, as happened last year.

North Korea is in routine defiance of the UN Security Council. It test-fired an intercontinental ballistic missile in March, one of 17 rounds of missile tests already in 2022. On Sunday, it added to that number with a massive eight missiles fired. Pyongyang is also reportedly preparing for yet another nuclear test — its first since September 2017 — even though the UN has sanctioned it for past missile and nuclear tests. Its leader Kim Jong Un has stated that his doctrine included using nuclear weapons as a first-strike option if he felt threatened.

Cohesion at the UNSC regarding the hermit state may no longer be possible. Russia and China last month vetoed a US-sponsored resolution that sought to impose additional sanctions on North Korea. US-Russian cooperation appears to be at an end, whatever the issue.

Disarmament is not a minor matter, as painfully highlighted by the Ukraine war. The global diplomatic scene shows that the major powers lack the trust and engagement required to move forward.

But perhaps there is a minor upside. The genuine threat of nuclear war could serve as a wake-up call to worldwide public opinion and leaderships that such wars are not winnable. They must tackle the issue and cauterize the gaping wounds in the world’s security setup. The alternative is a world where nuclear weapon possession becomes more normalized, with all the security challenges that presents.

• Chris Doyle