Palestinian writer and director of a research center in London, Mohamed Masharqa believes that the postponement or cancelling the elections will open the door to new reactions for Hamas which is holding elections in Gaza and using electronic voting in West Bank, Jerusalem, which will reinforce the division to end the legitimacy of the Politician system in the West Bank.
Masharqa added, Estimates and serious opinion polls indicate that “Fatah movement”, with all the capabilities provided by the civilian and military government agencies, will face political fail worse than the one in 2006
Masharqa believes that the Future List, headed by Fatah Revolutionary Council member Samir Mashharawi, one of the most prominent leaders of the democratic reform movement led by Muhammad Dahlan, will be able to achieve advanced positions in the next political scene.
According to the author’s estimates, the Future List will be able to collect the angry voices not only in Gaza, but also in the West Bank and Jerusalem, because of the attitude of the Palestinian people towards the two authorities.
Mashariqa affirmed that the elimination of Fatah lists by using presidential decrees and the judiciary will not change anything in the miserable image of the Authority in Ramallah, but rather multiply the negative results, the angry voices will elect the regional, independent lists and Hamas.
Masharqa pointed out that the increase in the number of Palestinian electoral lists registered for the May 22 maturity is a big evidence of the crisis and lack of confidence in the political system in all its parts and all old political class in all its expressions, Fatah movement participate the elections with 680 candidates distributed in about nine electoral lists out of a total of 1,389 candidates, about half of the total number of candidates, which shows the depth of the crisis facing the oldest political movements that lead the contemporary Palestinian revolution and the PLO.
Masharqa expects the coming days will witness a decline in the popularity of the National Democratic Forum “Freedom” list led by the dismissed Central Committee member Nasser Al-Qudwa and joined by the prisoner Marwan Barghouthi, due to its retreat from the ideas presented by Nasser Al-Qudwa when the forum was established, pointing that the forum is not another version of Fatah, it’s a political and intellectual current open to all patriots and democrats.
He added: “Ahmed Ghoneim, one of the most prominent leaders of the Marwan Barghouthi movement and candidate on the Freedom List, surprised us by saying the aim of the list is to reproduce the Fatah movement under the leadership of President Mahmoud Abbas, without explaining with this“ great ”goal why he and others left the Central Committee’s list”.
The estimated show’s that six lists will withdraw before Election Day, and about twenty lists will not exceed the electoral threshold, while the four main lists, Hamas, Central Committee for Fatah, Future List supported by Dahlan, and the Al-Qudwa Barghouthi Alliance, will occupy nearly 100 seats, but the surprising thing will be that the youth and independent lists may win.
Hamas will also face a major decline in its popularity. In the last elections, the movement won 76 seats, while the estimates do not give it more than 30-35 seats in its official bloc and the other allied lists in the West Bank and Jerusalem.